By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin’s bounce from late Tuesday lows near $110,000 has stalled just above $113,000 as the lack of fresh U.S. economic data leaves both crypto and forex traders in limbo. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index steadied above 3,800 points, representing a 4% gain on a 24-hour basis.
The ongoing government shutdown has deprived investors of key macroeconomic indicators, prompting a reprieve for the U.S. dollar.
Analysts at ING noted that “[USD] bears have become discouraged by the lack of soft jobs evidence, and many have thrown in the towel,” suggesting dollar positioning looks more balanced now.
It means that the greenback could hold on to its recent gains, making it harder for bitcoin and other dollar-denominated altcoins to post strong advances.
Meanwhile, gold remains bid, with major institutions like Bank of America and J.P. Morgan expecting further upside for the precious metal, projecting prices between $4,500 and $5,000 an ounce by 2026.
This bullish outlook has benefited gold-backed tokens as well; according to TokenTerminal, the supply of tokenized gold on Ethereum has more than doubled this year, nearing $2.7 billion.
QCP Capital expressed hope that bitcoin could soon resume its bull run, catching up with gold. “With institutional treasuries accumulating positions and ETF inflows remaining robust ($102.7 million into BTC ETFs and $236.2 million into ETH ETFs yesterday), the setup for a renewed rally may already be forming,” the firm’s market insights team said.
They added that it remains to be seen if BTC can maintain its “digital gold” status in the next phase of the macro cycle as tariffs risk resurface and liquidity dynamics shift.
Liquidity dynamics have also come into focus following a recent report from Finery Markets, which showed that over-the-counter (OTC) desks acted as key shock absorbers during the latest market crash, providing greater liquidity compared to centralized exchanges. This reportedly helped cushion the blow in turbulent times.
In other developments, Taiwanese stablecoin payment company OwlTing has received approval for its direct listing on the Nasdaq, with trading set to commence this Thursday. This milestone reflects growing institutional acceptance and maturation within the crypto payments ecosystem.
Data tracking website Coinglass noted a concerning trend pertaining to centralized exchanges. These avenues, led by Binance, have witnessed massive outflows in the past seven days. If the liquidity dries and bid-ask spreads widen, there could be more volatility on the horizon.
Overall, as markets await clearer macroeconomic signals, bitcoin and crypto investors remain cautiously optimistic but aware of ongoing challenges from dollar strength and liquidity trends.
Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 15: BNB Chain Wallet browser extension to be discontinued; users advised to back up keys and migrate wallets.
- Macro
- Oct. 15, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. Retail Sales YoY (Prev. 1%), MoM Est. 0.2%.
- Oct. 15, 9:30: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).
- Oct. 15, 11 a.m.: Colombia Aug. Retail Sales YoY Est. 14%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- The Sandbox DAO is voting to enable estate sales by letting LAND owners bundle and sell multiple parcels via the GBM x Sandbox marketplace. Voting ends Oct. 15.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 15: to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $21.44 million.
- Token Launches
- Oct. 15: to be listed on Kraken.
- Oct. 15: Recall (RECALL) to be listed on Binance, KuCoin, MEXC, BitMart, and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- , formerly fetch.ai, has suffered a grueling week; losing 43% of its value during a sell-off spurred by Ocean Protocol’s decision to leave the Alliance.
- “As many of you have seen, Ocean Protocol has chosen to step away from the ASI Alliance,” the company wrote on X. “In parallel, there’s been noticeable market activity involving large transfers of FET tokens from wallets associated with Ocean Protocol to Binance.”
- The token suffered a flash crash on Oct. 10 along with the wider crypto market, but since then the price action has been exhibiting behavior of persistent selling, with little to no respite for buyers.
- FET is now trading at $0.31, its lowest point in two years having eroded all of the bullish gains over the recent bull market.
- At one point in 2024 it had topped $3.11 amid a wave of AI-related bullish sentiment, but it has lacked a spark ever since.
- The move is reflective of the bubbling nature of AI, with the IMF warning on Wednesday that if the AI bubble burst it could rival the infamous dotcom crash.
Derivatives Positioning
- XPL, ASTER, SUI, and LINK have experienced a notable rise in futures open interest, while the top 10 tokens present a mixed performance overall.
- A whale address, labeled 0xc2a3, opened a 5x short in BTC worth $140 million on Hyperliquid.
- BTC futures open interest on Binance jumped by $510 million during the Asian hours as a trader moved $89 million in USDC to the exchange, possibly to short futures.
- Perpetual funding rates for majors, including bitcoin and ether, held flat-to-negative, implying a cautious sentiment.
- BTC futures activity on the CME remains subdued while open interest in options zoomed to a record high of 61.44K BTC. Positioning in ether futures and options remained elevated near lifetime peaks.
- On Deribit, put skew in short- and near-dated BTC options increased slightly during the overnight trade. Flows over OTC desk Paradigm featured a long position in the Oct 18 expiry $108K BTC put.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.13% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $112,554.13 (24hrs: 1.98%)
- ETH is up 0.74% at $4,154.14 (24hrs: 5.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.68% at 3,808.91 (24hrs: +3.68%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.98%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0028% (3.0682% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.18% at 98.86
- Gold futures are up 1.39% at $4,221.40
- Silver futures are up 1.89% at $51.58
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.76% at 47,672.67
- Hang Seng closed up 1.84% at 25,910.60
- FTSE is down 0.51% at 9,404.25
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.50% at 5,635.34
- DJIA closed on Tueday up 0.44% at 46,270.46
- S&P 500 closed down 0.16% at 6,644.31
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.76% at 22,521.70
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.68% at 30,353.61
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.26% at 2826.5
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.9 bps at 4.013%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.59% at 6,726.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.80% at 24,961.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.41% at 46,689.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.13% (-0.27%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03689 (1.1%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,085 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.37
- Total Fees: 2.72 BTC / $306,963
- CME Futures Open Interest: 142,515 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 27 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.63%
Technical Analysis
- BTC continues to trade well above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which has consistently offered strong support since 2023, marking end of price corrections.
- The broader outlook, therefore, remains constructive while prices hold above the key average.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $341.55 (-4.33%)
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $134.46 (-2.19%)
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $41.14 (-0.22%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $59.31 (-0.4%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $22.24 (+9.88%)
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $22.19 (+2.26%)
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.94 (-1.41%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $21.98 (+9.68%)
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $63.79 (+4.81%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.79 (-2.97%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $300.67 (-4.69%), +1.+44% at $305
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $25.68 (-2.47%), 0.23% at $25.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.64 (-3-04%), +1.28% at $15.84
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.25 (-3.55%), +0.32% at $6.27
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.19 (+1.86%), +0.91% at $2.21
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $102.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.50 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $236.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.73 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.75 million
Source: Farside Investors
