For Canadians looking to prepare a Thanksgiving meal for their families this weekend, economists have some good news — the feast will likely cost about the same as last year, with some items like turkey costing even less.
“Overall, the big picture is that Thanksgiving dinner should cost us fairly similar to what it did last year, depending on what the specific tradition is in your household,” said Mike von Massow, food economist at the University of Guelph.
According to the latest figures available from Statistics Canada, the retail price of a frozen turkey was around $3.81 per kilogram across the country in a four-week period from Aug. 10 to Sept. 6.
During the same period last year, the retail price of a whole frozen turkey was $4.34 per kilogram.
Around Thanksgiving this year, you should be able to get turkey around $3.99 a pound, according to Darren Ference, chair of the Turkey Farmers of Canada.
“When they go into the supermarket, there should be a good supply of turkey at fair prices — under or equal to prices from last year. So find yourself a nice turkey within your size or find pieces or parts,” Ference said.
For the average family, a Thanksgiving meal for four should cost somewhere between $34 and $35, von Massow said.
“It depends on where you are, but the estimates that I’ve seen for a family of four are around $34 to $35 for a Thanksgiving meal. That includes turkey,” he said.
A recent report by the Agri-Food labs at Dalhousie University estimated that the cost of serving a Thanksgiving dinner for four this year is $32.48, compared with $32.30 in 2024.
“The turkey, the centrepiece of any Thanksgiving dinner, is cheaper this year. A 7-pound frozen bird costs $10.43, down from $11.69 in 2024,” University of Dalhousie professor Sylvain Charlebois said in the report.
He added that the cost of preparing the stuffing and getting sides like cranberries is increasing the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal marginally this year.
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“Carrots, another staple, have seen a sharp decline — nearly half the price compared to last year, at just $0.91 per pound,” Charlebois said in the report.
“A 10-pound bag of potatoes, indispensable for mashed or roasted accompaniments, has jumped from $5.99 to $6.99, one of the largest increases in our basket,” his research added.
“Cranberries, stuffing, and gravy have also crept up noticeably, with gravy rising by nearly 45 percent. Bread rolls edged higher, though only by a penny. The pumpkin pie, at $5.99, has remained unchanged.”
Families that skip turkey for a different protein might have to pay more this year.
“Some families will eat ham. Ham is a little more expensive than it was a year ago,” von Massow said.
However, vegans might not have to pay that much more.
“Proteins are a little bit more expensive, but some of the plant-based proteins haven’t been pulled up as much as some of others. We saw ham go up in price, but my expectation is that tofu will be relatively flat,” von Massow said.
For Canadians in a hurry, many retailers will sell pre-stuffed turkeys, Ference said. However, he warned that there is a price premium on those.
“There are different grades (of turkey) available. If you want more of it done and the ease as it’s prepared more, then the price goes up,” he said.
He added that most of the turkey you see in the supermarket this year is likely to be Canadian turkey, making it easier for anyone looking to buy Canadian.
“With the shortage in the states, it’ll be 100 per cent Canadian turkey,” he said.
Despite the recent price drop, Canadians are still paying significantly more for a turkey than they did in 2020 at the start of the pandemic.
In August-September of 2020, the retail price of a whole frozen turkey was $2.57 per kilogram.
“The most recent statistics suggest that one in four Canadians are living in a food insecure household right now,” said Valerie Tarasuk, professor emerita of nutritional sciences at the University of Toronto.
“Going into Thanksgiving weekend, there’ll be absolutely families that will be struggling to figure out what to do and how to afford it,” she added.
Tarasuk said that while some families will be looking to find cheaper substitutes at Thanksgiving, others have already been cutting down.
“There is an abundance of research that suggests when families are really, really struggling, adults will deprive themselves of more nutritious food as a way to free it up for their children,” she said.
Tarasuk added that historically, Thanksgiving has been a busy time of year for Canadian food banks and she expects long lines this weekend too.
While people are generally receptive to changing food habits, the holidays can add some pressure on families, von Massow said.
“Because of the nostalgia of Thanksgiving, most people say, ‘Well, this is what we have every Thanksgiving,’ so they’re not keen to change,” von Massow said.
Ference said that cost is a concern for many Canadians. However, looking to eliminate food waste might give some a chance to cook a cheaper Thanksgiving meal.
“You can buy a 99-cent off-grade turkey that may be missing a little wing or have a little divot cut out of it. It’s still a perfectly good turkey. Put it in a roaster, put some good stuffing in it and you’ve got a pretty good meal with a few potatoes and you’re good to go,” he said.
