The best teams in Europe right now: Bayern, Kane setting the tone

Bayern Munich have dominated Germany’s top flight for ages, often by piecing together a team of Bundesliga all-stars. Anyone enjoying a star turn anywhere in the country, whether player or coach, was likely to get a call from the 33-time champs, from Manuel Neuer (Schalke 04), Robert Lewandowski (Borussia Dortmund) and Joshua Kimmich (RB Leipzig), all the way back to legends like Oliver Kahn (Karlsruher SC), Lothar Matthäus (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and Giovane Élber (VfB Stuttgart).

This summer, however, seemed to send Bayern into a bit of an existential tailspin. Bayer Leverkusen and Germany national team star Florian Wirtz chose Liverpool over Bayern, and after the German giants gave up on pursuing Stuttgart’s Nick Woltemade because surely no one would be crazy enough to pay what Stuttgart were asking, Newcastle United paid it and lured the lanky forward to England as well. Instead of landing the Next Big Things, Bayern settled for acquiring veterans like Liverpool’s Luis Díaz and Bayer Leverkusen’s Jonathan Tah, along with an expensive loan move for Chelsea outcast Nicolas Jackson. By the end of a terribly disappointing transfer window, Bayern had created … the best team in Europe.

Even without injured stars Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies, Vincent Kompany’s team has been untouchable in 2025-26. In nine matches — and nine wins — in the Bundesliga, UEFA Champions League and DFB-Pokal, they have outscored opponents by a combined 36-7. This sample includes wins by a combined 9-0 over ambitious German clubs RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt and a dominant 3-1 pounding of Chelsea in the Champions League.

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– Revisiting Leicester City’s Premier League triumph, 10 years later
– Hunter: The unraveling of Barcelona has been weeks in the making
– O’Hanlon: Should Liverpool be worried about Mohamed Salah’s form?

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Below are the top 20 teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues in what we’ll call “adjusted goal differential” — a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations — in league play and UEFA competitions. (We’ll ignore domestic cup play for now, since that’s featured a number of huge mismatches for some teams.)

The list below isn’t opponent-adjusted, and two months isn’t a long enough time to generate a true, predictive sample. But a list like this can still tell us who is in the best raw form right now. And no one has come close to the level Bayern have established thus far.

1. Bayern Munich

Past two months: Eight matches, 24 points (3.00 PPG), +2.72 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Borussia Dortmund (Oct. 18), Club Brugge (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Borussia Monchengladbach (Oct. 25), at FC Cologne (Oct. 29)

Bayern have been so good thus far that it’s screwed up the trend line:

Bayern are averaging over four goals per match in the Bundesliga and have allowed just three goals in six matches. Harry Kane has scored 17 goals in nine matches and while that includes six penalties, he’d still be leading the Bundesliga without them. Not only are his 14 combined Bundesliga goals and assists good for first in the league, but Diaz (nine) is second, Serge Gnabry (six) is fourth, and Michael Olise (five) is tied for fifth. (Diaz is also sixth in the league in ball recoveries. His energy is endless.)

Everything Kompany touches is working at the moment. Full back Raphaël Guerreiro is spending a lot of minutes in attacking midfield in Musiala’s absence. It’s working. Midfielder Konrad Laimer is the left back in Davies’ absence; he’s been the best left back in the league.

The question, of course, is whether they can keep it up. Of their nine players with at least 500 minutes in all competitions, seven are at least 28 years old. Depth is a huge question. But injuries and future changes in form are concerns for later — early in 2025-26, Bayern have been virtually perfect.

Past two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +1.58 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At AS Roma (Oct. 18), at Union St.-Gilloise (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Napoli (Oct. 25), Fiorentina (Oct. 29)

The Nerazzurri‘s Club World Cup showing was pretty mediocre, and they began Serie A play with losses on both sides of the first international break (including a thrilling 4-3 loss to Juventus). It wasn’t the most inspiring start for manager Cristian Chivu succeeding Simone Inzaghi, but their xG differential was positive in both losses, which was a positive sign, and since Champions League play began, Inter have basically been automatic: five matches, five wins, 13 goals scored, two allowed.

Six different players have scored at least twice this season, while Federico Dimarco and 21-year-old Ange-Yoan Bonny (in only 131 minutes) are tied for the Serie A lead with three assists. Bonny shone for Chivu at Parma last season and came to Inter Milan over the summer; Dimarco is also first in chances created (22) and expected assists from completed passes (2.3).

Past two months: Nine matches, 22 points (2.44 PPG), +1.37 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: at Fulham (Oct. 18), Atlético Madrid (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Crystal Palace (Oct. 26), Brighton & Hove Albion (Oct. 29)

With each progressive season, Arsenal become even more Arsenal. Through seven Premier League games, they’re first in the league in goals allowed (three), xG allowed (4.4), shots allowed (56), set piece goals (seven) and goal differential from set pieces (+5).

Epic defense and set-piece dominance? So very Arsenal.

Do they play sexy, high-flying ball? Lord, no. Are they ridiculously effective and possibly the favorites to win both the Premier League and Champions League? Absolutely. Among new additions, midfielder Martín Zubimendi and forward Viktor Gyökeres have become full-time starters, with three others filling in part-time (Eberechi Eze, Cristhian Mosquera, Noni Madueke), and their newfound depth has allowed them to pace both competitions despite getting little from Bukayo Saka (three goals in 428 minutes), Martin Ødegaard (two assists in 294 minutes) or Kai Havertz (30 total minutes).

Past two months: 10 matches, 27 points (2.70 PPG), +1.36 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Getafe (Oct. 19), Juventus (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), Barcelona (Oct. 26)

They suffered a shockingly poor Madrid derby loss to Atlético Madrid in late September, they’ve been outscored on set pieces, Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo both seem unimpressed with their playing time, and injuries have been unkind — neither Jude Bellingham nor Trent Alexander-Arnold have topped 156 minutes yet in 2025-26.

The vibes in Madrid may not be amazing, but Los Blancos‘ form has still been mostly impeccable. They’ve won nine of 10 matches, with four of their last five by multiple goals. Kylian Mbappé leads LaLiga in goals, even excluding penalties, and he’s also second in chances created while Vini Jr. is second in assists. Given more responsibility than expected, youngsters Arda Güler and Franco Mastantuono are holding their own. And while this isn’t exactly a gegenpressing unit, Real Madrid are fifth in LaLiga in high turnovers forced (89) and first in goals from high turnovers (six).

Past two months: Nine matches, 22 points (2.44 PPG), +1.02 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Strasbourg (Oct. 17), at Bayer Leverkusen (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Brest (Oct. 25), at Lorient (Oct. 29)

Of the 11 players who started for PSG in May’s Champions League final, five have played under 300 minutes because of injury (Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, João Neves, Désiré Doué and Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé), and one (Gianluigi Donnarumma) left the club. It feels like PSG’s season hasn’t actually begun yet, and yet they’ve still won both Champions League matches — including one at Barcelona — and have suffered only two blemishes, an unfortunate 1-1 draw with Lille (xG differential: +1.0) and a legit 1-0 loss to Marseille.

We have a pretty fun-looking Ligue 1 race at the moment, with PSG leading the trio of Lyon, Marseille and Strasbourg — all of whom are on this list — by only one point each. But it’s fair to assume we know what will happen when the other half of PSG’s lineup shows back up.

Past two months: Six matches, 13 points (2.17 PPG), +0.95 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Fiorentina (Oct. 19), Pisa (Oct. 24), at Atalanta (Oct. 28)

Missing out on European competitions, as Milan did with last season’s moribund eighth-place finish, means your pocketbook takes a hit. But it can also mean less fatigue and a chance at an uncluttered league season. And when your most exciting offseason signing (Luka Modric) is 40 years old, you can turn that into a good thing.

In Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Christopher Nkunku and Pervis Estupiñán, the club added quite a few sturdy veterans for veteran-friendly manager Max Allegri; Modric has played nearly every minute and leads Serie A in pass completions and progressive passes. Christian Pulisic, meanwhile, is tied for the league lead with six combined goals (four) and assists (two). Since an opening loss to Cremonese, Milan are unbeaten, and their Sept. 28 win over league leaders Napoli brought them to within two points of the top of the table.

7. Barcelona

Past two months: 10 matches, 22 points (2.20 PPG), +0.85 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Girona (Oct. 18), Olympiacos (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Real Madrid (Oct. 26)

As with Real Madrid, you couldn’t tell how things are going for Barcelona by reading the headlines. They remain without a home, and injuries are piling up: Lamine Yamal, Raphinha and Joan García have missed time, while Gavi will be out for months. Plus, Hansi Flick’s absurdly high defensive line is producing fewer high turnovers, fewer offsides and more defensive breakdowns. (That was the case in his second season at Bayern, too.)

Still, Barça were unbeaten until last week’s 2-1 Champions League loss to PSG, and while they admittedly followed that up with a dire 4-1 loss to Sevilla, the underlying numbers (minus-0.5 xG differential) weren’t as bad as the score. Real Madrid might post a really high points total in LaLiga this season, but there’s nothing damningly wrong at Barça.

8. Atlético Madrid

Past two months: 10 matches, 16 points (1.60 PPG), +0.82 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Osasuna (Oct. 18), at Arsenal (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Real Betis (Oct. 27)

Atleti are a moving target. They won only one of their first six matches of the season, getting outplayed by Espanyol and suffering unlucky 1-1 draws against Elche, Alavés and Mallorca. They pummeled both Real Madrid (5-2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (5-1) in a nearly perfect week, but they laid an egg before the international break, suffering a moribund draw with Celta Vigo.

The high points were high enough to rank them eighth here, but describing Atleti’s form in any way is tenuous when it seems to change by the hour.

9. Strasbourg

Past two months: 10 matches, 22 points (2.20 PPG), +0.77 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At PSG (Oct. 17), Jagiellonia Bialystok (Oct. 23; UEFA Conference League), at Lyon (Oct. 26), AJ Auxerre (Oct. 29)

It’s an odd time to be a Strasbourg fan. On one hand, your club has basically been converted into a Chelsea farm team, and you hate it. On the other hand, despite ridiculous youth — the top 12 players in total minutes are 23 or younger — your team is playing some of its best ball in ages.

Le Racing haven’t enjoyed a top-five finish since 1979-80, but they’re currently just a point off of first place thanks to potent counterattacking. Forwards Joaquín Panichelli and Emanuel Emegha are thriving up front, and Strasbourg have both attempted the highest quantity of good shots (0.2 xG or higher) while allowing the fewest. That’s a good recipe.

10. Lyon

Past two months: Nine matches, 21 points (2.33 PPG), +0.76 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Nice (Oct. 18), FC Basel (Oct. 23; UEFA Europa League), Strasbourg (Oct. 26), at Paris FC (Oct. 29)

One unexpected theme from this list: Bad headlines off the pitch don’t have much of an impact on the play on the pitch.

Lyon were nearly relegated this offseason due to financial issues, and were therefore limited in the moves they could make. But they’ve won eight of nine matches to position themselves just one point behind PSG.

Nine different players have scored at least one goal, and seven have recorded an assist. Moussa Niakhaté has been one of the steadiest buildup players and best defensive interventionists in the league. Manager Paulo Fonseca bombed at AC Milan last season, but as he proved at Lille, he knows what he’s doing in France.

11. Crystal Palace

Past two months: 10 matches, 19 points (1.90 PPG), +0.74 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: AFC Bournemouth (Oct. 18), AEK Larnaca (Oct. 23; UEFA Conference League), at Arsenal (Oct. 26), at Liverpool (Oct. 29)

Palace are hard to read. Including the Community Shield and Carabao Cup (and ignoring penalty shootout results), their first eight matches of the season produced six draws. They have drastically underachieved in the finishing department, scoring only 12 goals from shots worth 17.7 xG in the Premier League and Conference League, but opponents have scored only five from 10.2 xG as well. If one progresses toward the mean before the other, that could define Palace’s fall and winter.

They’re clearly playing an effective version of Oliver Glasner’s counterattacking ball, with sturdy contributions at both the front (from forward Jean-Philippe Mateta and winger Ismaïla Sarr) and back (center backs Marc Guéhi and Chris Richards). Their presence as only the second English team on this form list is a reminder of that, but their underlying stats make it impossible to figure out what is and isn’t sustainable.

12. Borussia Dortmund

Past two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.73 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Bayern Munich (Oct. 18), at F.C. København (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), FC Cologne (Oct. 25), at Eintracht Frankfurt (Oct. 28), at FC Augsburg (Oct. 31)

In their last 21 competitive matches going back to last season, BVB have lost just once — 3-2 to Real Madrid in the Club World Cup — with five draws and 15 wins. They’re unbeaten this season, with only a trio of draws marring a perfect start. Granted, they’re already four points behind Bayern in the Bundesliga race, but that’s more due to Bayern’s perfection. Among non-Bayern Bundesliga teams, they’re second in goals and first in goals allowed.

Serhou Guirassy’s four Bundesliga goals are best of any non-Bayern player, and second-year BVB defender Waldemar Anton is second in the league in progressive carries (72), third in progressive passes (58) and sixth in defensive interventions (83). Throw in a particularly strong run for speedster Karim Adeyemi — three goals and three assists in his last six matches — and you have something going.

Past two months: Nine matches, 17 points (1.89 PPG), +0.68 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Everton (Oct. 18), at Villarreal (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Aston Villa (Oct. 26), at Swansea City (Oct. 29; Carabao Cup)

Pep Guardiola is still trying to figure out what his team is in 2025-26. Through seven Premier League matches, City still have the most total pass attempts and highest pass completion rate, and their attack is still rather horizontal on average. But they’ve also generated the most xG in the league from counterattacks, and the only defense in the league that is more passive — using average passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) — is West Ham United’s. Their possession rate was under 50% in back-to-back Premier League games.

Guardiola is attempting to balance his long-standing possession principles with the acceptance that (a) City’s transition defense was ripped to shreds last season and (b) Erling Haaland is utterly devastating on the counter. City are currently only fifth in the Premier League, but the underlying numbers suggest a charge up the table wouldn’t be incredibly surprising.

14. Marseille

Past two months: Nine matches, 18 points (2.00 PPG), +0.64 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Le Havre (Oct. 18), at Sporting CP (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Lens (Oct. 25), Angers (Oct. 29)

After addressing that pesky “teammates brawl and get transfer listed” issue back in August, Marseille have been brilliant, winning five of six. They beat PSG, they tested Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, and in their last two matches before the break they beat Ajax and Metz by a combined 7-0. Mason Greenwood is tied for first in Ligue 1 in assists (three) and is second in chances created (17), and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is in the top 10 in both progressive passes and ball recoveries, a perfect combination for a defensive midfielder.

In Roberto de Zerbi’s first season, OM jumped from eighth to second in the league. The competition appears stiffer this year, but they have a solid chance of backing up that finish.

15. Bayer Leverkusen

Past two months: Eight matches, 13 points (1.63 PPG), +0.56 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Mainz (Oct. 18), PSG (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), SC Freiburg (Oct. 26), at SC Paderborn 07 (Oct. 29; DFB-Pokal)

This one surprised me. Leverkusen have pretty steadily leaked points this season, with two draws and a 2-1 loss to TSG Hoffenheim in Bundesliga play and two draws in two Champions League matches. But they’ve produced a positive xG differential in seven of nine matches, and their two best performances of the season — a 3-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2-0 over Union Berlin — were outstanding.

Their form has improved notably since replacing the quickly fired Erik ten Hag with Kasper Hjulmand. With four goals and two assists from 20 chances created in all competitions, Alejandro Grimaldo is doing a solid Wirtz impression (better than Wirtz at the moment), and new addition Ernest Poku has scored twice in three matches.

16. Newcastle United

Past two months: Nine matches, 12 points (1.33 PPG), +0.55 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Brighton (Oct. 18), Benfica (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Fulham (Oct. 25), Tottenham Hotspur (Oct. 29)

Like Bayern and others, Newcastle lost the transfer window perceptions battle, holding out for a resolution that didn’t involve sending Alexander Isak to Liverpool, failing, and rushing to sign replacements late in August. They also won only one of their first six matches in all competitions.

And yet, here they are on the form list, ahead of Chelsea and Liverpool among others. They’ve scored 11 goals in their last four matches in all competitions, new addition Woltemade has four goals with five chances created in 427 minutes, and the defense is as stingy as ever — Newcastle are first in the league in xG allowed per shot and second in shots allowed per possession.

The attack is improving, but you don’t have to score very much if your opponents can’t create anything.

17. Napoli

Past two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.51 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Torino (Oct. 18), at PSV Eindhoven (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Inter Milan (Oct. 25), at Lecce (Oct. 28)

Napoli kept almost their entire roster intact following last season’s Scudetto, and to it they added Kevin De Bruyne, Bologna defender Sam Beukema and, for the second straight season, a Manchester United cast-off (Rasmus Højlund). And in eight matches this season, they’ve fallen only to AC Milan and Manchester City; in the former loss they held a huge xG advantage, and in the latter they played a man down for 70 minutes. Excusable blemishes.

De Bruyne is among the league leaders in chances created, as one would expect, and Højlund bagged a brace in last week’s 2-1 win over Sporting CP. Everything appears to be working as it should, and Napoli should once again make a solid push for the title.

18. Chelsea

Past two months: Nine matches, 14 points (1.56 PPG), +0.48 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: At Nottingham Forest (Oct. 18), Ajax (Oct. 22), Sunderland (Oct. 25), at Wolverhampton Wanderers (Oct. 29; Carabao Cup)

They’ve had to deal with multiple red cards, including one in the fifth minute against Manchester United. Cole Palmer has only played in four matches due to injury. Wesley Fofana and Liam Delap have barely played. Levi Colwill is out long-term. And after some stellar early performances, Chelsea have generated a positive xG differential in only one of their last seven matches.

But thanks to brilliant work from new forward João Pedro and midfielders Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo, plus some last-minute heroics from young Estêvão against Liverpool, Chelsea are getting by. They lost three of four matches in September, but the Liverpool win sent them into the international break in a good mood, and Palmer and Fofana should return soon. They haven’t been convincing, but they still made this list.

Past two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.45 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Inter Milan (Oct. 18), Viktoria Plzen (Oct. 23; UEFA Europa League), at Sassuolo (Oct. 26), Parma (Oct. 29)

They haven’t really kicked into goal-scoring gear, as one would expect a Gian Piero Gasperini team to do, and they haven’t gotten much out of new signings besides a few incisive passes from midfielder Wesley. But Roma are generating results. They’ve suffered only a pair of 1-0 losses – to Torino and Lille (combined xG differential: +1.9) — and they’re tied in points with league leader Napoli.

Matìas Soulè is playing well up front, and perhaps most importantly this early on, this team is running: Soule, midfielders Manu Koné and Bryan Cristante and defender Evan Ndicka are all among the top 10 in Serie A in ball recoveries. A Gasperini team that can fly around the pitch tends to eventually score goals and win games, and if they have the depth they need (TBD), they could make it a four-team Serie A race.

20. Liverpool

Past two months: Nine matches, 18 points (2.00 PPG), +0.43 adj. goal differential
Remaining October schedule: Manchester United (Oct. 19), at Eintracht Frankfurt (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Brentford (Oct. 25), Crystal Palace (Oct. 29; Carabao Cup)

Following the Community Shield, Liverpool ripped off a ridiculously fortunate seven-game winning streak featuring both blown leads and endless late-game heroics. It was easy to see that regression was going to strike at some point, and it suddenly did: Liverpool have now lost three in a row, two after late-game heroics in the other direction.

That the defending Premier League champs are the fifth English team on this list tells you things aren’t quite right, especially after they spent nearly €500 million in squad upgrades. The attack hasn’t gelled, their transition defense is a mess, and both of these things make sense when you realize that (a) they completely remodeled their attack (which, along with age, has impacted the performance of their best player), and (b) when you bring in new attackers and a pair of attack-friendly full-backs — and you have to squeeze an attacking midfielder, Dominik Szoboszlai, in at right back just to keep him on the pitch — it’s probably going to impact your defensive performance, at least in the short term.

Isak’s gorgeous, cradled assist against Chelsea last week was a reminder of what this team might be capable of if or when all the pieces click into place. But they haven’t yet.

The rest of the top 30

21. Como: +0.42
22. Stuttgart: +0.38
23. Brest: +0.35
24. Atalanta: +0.35
25. Athletic Club: +0.34
26. Rayo Vallecano: +0.34
27. AFC Bournemouth: +0.29
28. Espanyol: +0.28
29. Freiburg: +0.26
30. Real Betis: +0.24