NHL prognosticators don’t have much confidence again this season in the Montreal Canadiens.
Last year, the money line was for the Canadiens to finish with only 75 points. They destroyed that number with 91 points and a playoff spot.
This season, the over/under for the Canadiens is 90 points. In Montreal, there is high confidence they can reach that number, but around the league, the belief is the Canadiens vastly overachieved last season, and they will not make the playoffs in 2025-26.
It was the customary challenge in Toronto for the Canadiens on night one. The Canadiens played well, but the result was familiar as the Maple Leafs won 5-2.
Wilde Horses
Toronto Head Coach Craig Berube tried to get a favourable matchup with the last change that saw his best players facing Oliver Kapanen. Suddenly, after a great camp, it was Kapanen with his first moments as an NHL centre with a massive responsibility.
Kapanen answered the call. The organization is desperate for a second line centre, and they believed when camp broke that Kirby Dach was the go-to-guy. However, it was Kapanen that won the job, and then he won his matchup in Toronto on for no goals against.
Kapanen was asked to help his linemates Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov play in the offensive zone. It wasn’t expected that he would add his first goal in his NHL career in his 19th game. It was a shorthand opportunity for Kapanen as he scored with a wrist shot far-side from 20 feet.
One of the big positives on night one was that penalty kill. The worry was that the club would miss Christian Dvorak and Joel Armia, but they found on the first penalty kill all the answers they hoped for. Besides the Kapanen goal, Josh Anderson had a close-in chance, and so did Newhook on a two-on-one with Kapanen.
The Canadiens had three glorious chances with Patrik Laine in the penalty box for an offensive zone penalty, while the Maple Leafs had no chances.
All eyes were on Demidov to see if he would be able to use his amazing stick skills in game situations. It’s one thing to excel at pre-season scrimmage shinny, but doubters remain that he can show the moves when real battles are on.
Demidov had a quiet first period, but in the second period, only two shifts in, Demidov was giving the Maple Leafs defenders all they could handle. He made space for himself in tight twice and had two excellent chances. A couple shifts later, Demidov created another strong chance.
The first power play unit doesn’t have Demidov on it. That can’t continue. There’s a hierarchy in the world of professional sports, and to abandon it is to make a lot of people upset in the locker room. However, just like it became apparent that Lane Hutson had to replace Mike Matheson on the first unit last season, this season, it will become just as apparent that Demidov has to replace Juraj Slafkovsky.
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Demidov has superior vision, creativity, and puck skills. It isn’t an insult to Slafkovsky who has done well on the first power play unit, but a much better player with the extra-man has arrived.
The Canadiens took the lead on the first goal for Zach Bolduc in his new colours. Brendan Gallagher took the initial shot, and Bolduc pounced on the rebound for an easy tally with Anthony Stolarz out of position.
Defensively, Mike Matheson very much enjoyed having a world-class player flanked to his right all night. With his consistency, Noah Dobson helped Matheson to feel comfortable to hold the blue line, and to find strong outlet passes. It was a strong game for the pair as they get to know each other’s tendencies early in the season.
The third pairing was also significantly better than it was for most of last season. Alex Carrier had an outstanding contest. He knew exactly when to close the gap on the rush and meet his man early to deliver hits, or recapture the puck. That allowed Arber Xhekaj to have a quietly effective night.
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While Kirby Dach tries to find his ACL under him without any fear to start the season, it was an excellent choice by Head Coach Martin St. Louis to not give him the most difficult challenges. Dach moved down the depth chart as camp continued.
It must be difficult for Dach to not play with fear that another serious injury awaits as soon as he gets hit and he falls awkwardly. Dach playing with two defensively responsible players in Bolduc and Gallagher was a smart choice by the head coach.
The organization’s goal is to help Dach find his legs and confidence. That starts with a simple 0-0 scoreline at the end of the night. Dach doesn’t need goals. He just needs to finish the night with a respectable Corsi shot-share.
Dach was on ice for the first goal against only a minute in, and he was on ice again for the second tally when the Leafs tied it. It looked a lot like last season on the ice for two goals against, and it can’t continue.
Dach had a 33 per cent Corsi shot-share. It was the worst on the club on night one. It would be easy to see all this as catastrophic, but he has to be given some time. Dach wasn’t even supposed to be ready to start the season. He needs everyone to be patient while he finds his legs, and believe that his reconstructed knee can handle the grind.
Other than the patience required for Dach, there wasn’t much to be negative about for the Canadiens. For the last five years, every time the Canadiens played in Toronto, even when Montreal won, they were dominated. One can now finally see the ice start to balance. The Leafs did not dominate like they have for so long.
Even with the game-winner against the Canadiens midway through the third period, it would be unfair to blame anyone. Both defenders lost their sticks on a Toronto counterattack. Hutson and Matheson were helpless as the Leafs pressed near Samuel Montembeault before finally scoring.
Sports can be cruel.
Wilde Cards
One of the great unknowns in the NHL last season was that the line with the best five-on-five goal differential was Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky. Most pundits didn’t even know they were top 10, never mind number one in goals-for and goals-against at equal strength.
Why then did the best line in the entire league not power the Montreal Canadiens to close to the top of the standings? The reason is as soon as they got off the ice, the game flipped. This season, if St. Louis could get even just a little support from the second line, his team will be dominant.
Kirby Dach was -29 last season. Patrik Laine was -14. Alex Newhook was -21. The Canadiens don’t even need positive numbers from these players to vault up the standings this season. They just need them to not be a black hole of goals-against again.
The third and fourth lines last season were also positive in goal differential. In fact, the fourth line led by Jake Evans was the second-best fourth line — behind only Carolina’s — in the entire league.
There is only one hole in this lineup, but it’s a massive hole. The second line is the focus. It doesn’t matter if it is Newhook who centres it, or Dach, or even Oliver Kapanen, but someone has to figure this out.
Ivan Demidov is an offensive wizard, but if his centre can’t clear the defensive zone, expect Demidov to be neutralized by spending too many shifts near his own goalie.
Demidov is not good defensively. He misses his assignment regularly. He needs to be complemented by good defensive linemates. He needs to be playing with the puck in the offensive zone. Lane Hutson on the blue line would be helpful as well.
All season long, look for the plus-minus of Demidov, Dach, Laine, and Newhook. If they are plus-players or close, it will be a stunningly good season. If they are deep in the red, this campaign will have to be carried by the Suzuki line again.
By January, GM Kent Hughes will have a giant smile on his face at the Bell Centre, or he will be wondering how many of his top prospects and draft picks he has to give up to get a second-line centre before the trading deadline.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
