College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 6

The overriding trend of the 2025 college football season — anything goes — continued in Week 6 with two sure-fire preseason College Football Playoff contenders losing to previously disappointing opponents.

Penn State’s loss to winless UCLA was the big shocker, with Texas’ defeat at Florida not far behind. Other key results for the postseason picture included Alabama handing Vanderbilt its first loss, Cincinnati doing the same to Iowa State and Miami winning at Florida State.

As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Oklahoma

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Indiana

Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Alabama

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: The monster result of the week was Penn State falling at UCLA, which came into the game looking like a team that might go winless. But Penn State’s shocking loss wasn’t the only significant setback among playoff hopefuls, with Texas (to Florida), Iowa State (to Cincinnati) and Vanderbilt (to Alabama) all falling.

This leaves the field with distinct SEC flavor in my bracket with all four first-round games featuring an SEC team. From my perspective, that is not good for the sport, but nine SEC teams are a combined 41-5 and only one of those losses came in nonconference. It has been a dominant run so far.

Schlabach: Penn State’s stunning 42-37 loss at previously winless UCLA shook up my 12-team bracket. I’d already dropped the Nittany Lions to No. 11 after last week’s 30-24 loss in two overtimes to Oregon, and now they’re out of my bracket altogether. It’s a stunning fall for James Franklin’s program.

LSU replaces Penn State, although I strongly considered Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia Tech and even two-loss Notre Dame for the final spot. I’m still not completely sold on LSU as a CFP team because of its inconsistent offense.

Two of the most intriguing first-round matchups in this scenario would be Georgia traveling to Indiana, where it could be quite cold, and LSU facing Oklahoma in an all-SEC game.

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CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Ole Miss

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: The byes in my bracket went to the same four teams as last week: Ohio State, Oregon, Miami and Ole Miss. You can make the case for any of them at No. 1, so splitting hairs this early in the season doesn’t accomplish much.

Of the four, Miami feels like the closest to a sure thing to reach the playoff with the schedule it has remaining, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a hiccup somewhere along the way. The other three should also be part of the field in the end, but by no means do their places in the top four feel permanent.

Schlabach: My top three teams remained unchanged after Ohio State routed Minnesota 42-3 and Miami beat another ranked team, this time on the road with a 28-22 victory at rival Florida State.

I flipped Ole Miss and Texas A&M for the fourth spot, although I think an argument could be made that either of those teams, plus Oklahoma or Indiana, could be in the top four. We’ll find out a lot more about the Hoosiers when they travel across the country to play at Oregon on Saturday.

Oklahoma plays struggling Texas in the Red River Rivalry in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, and it seems doubtful the Sooners will have star quarterback John Mateer, who is recovering from hand surgery.

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CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Ohio State’s defense continues to dominate at a championship level and until somebody — anybody — cracks the code and manages to reach the elusive land of double-digit points against the Buckeyes, they are the favorite to repeat. This week’s trip to Illinois could be interesting, but the Illini are only a few weeks removed from a 53-point loss to Indiana and the stain of that game is hard to forget.

Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals, and the odds of that happening probably aren’t good. Ohio State, Oregon and Miami look like the top three teams in the FBS. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the No. 4 team might end up being.

An Oregon-Miami matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would provide an intriguing quarterback battle between two transfers: the Ducks’ Dante Moore (UCLA) and the Hurricanes’ Carson Beck (Georgia). It would also be a bit of a grudge match because Miami coach Mario Cristobal spent four-plus seasons as Oregon’s coach before returning to his alma mater in 2022. The Buckeyes would probably be favorites to beat the Rebels in the Peach Bowl, but it would provide a great chess match between Lane Kiffin’s high-flying offense and Matt Patricia’s stingy defense.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ball State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana-Monroe vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Texas vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Syracuse

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. California
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Maryland

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: SMU vs. UNLV

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Florida State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Carolina

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: TCU vs. Texas

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Navy
Schlabach: UConn vs. NC State

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Missouri

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. USC
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Temple

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Auburn

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State