The Ford government’s deficit is projected to explode in the next year, according to Ontario’s budget watchdog, as the province’s economy continues to weather the effects of a trade war with the Trump administration.
Ontario’s Financial Accountability Officer said falling revenue combined with slower economic growth is expected to “significantly increase” the province’s deficit from $1.3 billion in 2024-25 to $12.0 billion in 2025-26.
The province’s debt is also expected to balloon to $549.3 billion in 2029-30 — meaning Premier Doug Ford’s government is projected to add $141 billion to Ontario’s debt load by the end of the decade.
The budget hawk warned that the temperamental trade situation will threaten the government’s ability to balance the books, leading to a projected $9 billion deficit in 2029, “as spending growth, led by the health sector and interest on debt, is expected to exceed revenue growth.”
The FAO cautioned, however, that its calculations were based on numbers available in early August, before the Carney government decided to roll back tariffs on American-made imports to Canada.
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“As U.S. trade policy continues to shift, the actual impact of tariffs on Ontario’s economy is highly uncertain and will depend on the magnitude, breadth and duration of tariff coverage, as well as how businesses, households and economies respond,” the FAO said.
Liberal finance critic Stephanie Bowman slammed the premier as being unable to fulfil his promise to balance Ontario’s budget and rein in spending, and warned that the bill will come due.
“We have to repay that money. Right now, Ontario has one of the highest debts per capita in the country — about $30,000 per person — that money has to be repaid,” said Bowman.
A spokesperson for Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said “Ontario’s finances are stronger today they they have been in a decade” and pointed to credit rating upgrades and increased revenues of $70 billion since 2018.
“We remain on a clear path to balance by 2027-28 as we work to protect our economy,” the ministry spokesperson said.
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