By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin is hovering near $111,000 as U.S.-China trade war put a damper on investors’ risk appetite and send safe-haven assets surging.
While gold climbed 0.8% to a record above $4,230 per ounce, bitcoin’s movement was more subdued. BTC is down 2% in the last 24 hours, reflecting what analysts say is a cautious but stable outlook.
The broader crypto market endured a bigger sell-off, seeing a rapid 3.8% decline in the same period, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index. The pullback comes as the market stages a fragile recovery from a violent $500 billion crash last week.
Still, to analysts, the market is consolidating rather than panicking. “The recent decline was not a panic sell-off but a controlled deleveraging,” on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant wrote in a weekly market note, pointing to stable funding rates and relatively modest outflows.
Growing options activity is for now shaping near-term market structure, Jasper De Maere, Desk Strategist at Wintermute, told CoinDesk in an emailed statement.
Traders are betting the market will calm down in the near future, evident through “lots of short straddles/diagonal calls clustered around 113–115k near-dated,” he said. On top of that, they’re adding downside protection through put calendar at $112,000.
Meanwhile, bitcoin’s price correlation with gold has reached 0.9, its highest in years. That metric supports the idea that investors increasingly treat the cryptocurrency as a hedge in times of geopolitical or economic stress.
To analysts at QCP Capital, the “setup for a renewed rally may already be forming,” based on continued institutional treasury accumulation and spot exchange-traded inflows remaining steady.
Still, traders are watching for catalysts. Rate cut expectations are offering support, with traders on Polymarket now pricing in 75 bps in total cuts this year. Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 16, 10 a.m.: Lido Poolside Community Call #2. Watch live on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn.
- Oct. 16: OpenxAI (OPENX), a permissionless AI protocol built on the Base blockchain, launches the public version of its mini app builder.
- Oct. 16: Taiwanese stablecoin infrastructure company OwlTing will be listed on Nasdaq Global Market under ticker OWLS.
- Oct. 16: U.K. retail investors expected to be allowed to start trading eligible crypto ETNs (physically backed BTC and ETH ETNs listed on the LSE).
- Macro
- Oct. 16, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. PPI. Headline YoY Est. 2.6%, MoM Est. 0.3%. Core YoY (Prev. 2.8%), MoM (Prev. -0.1%).
- Oct. 16, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. Retail Sales YoY (Prev. 5%), MoM Est. 0.4%. (Report delayed due to current federal government shutdown)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on creating Seldon Inc and a Gnosis VPN Committee to manage and scale the Gnosis VPN project built on the HOPR mixnet. The new DAO-owned entity would handle operations, compliance, and growth. Voting ends Oct. 16.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 16: to unlock 1.99% of its circulating supply worth $39.24 million.
- Token Launches
- Coinbase added BNB to its listing roadmap.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Altcoins were dealt another day of decimation on Thursday as several assets faced double-digit declines.
- , aster and lido (LDO) all fell between 12% and 13% over the past 24 hours, with CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” index sliding to 27/100, its lowest point in more than three months.
- Crypto majors BTC and ETH are still above respective levels of support at $110,000 and $4,000, although sentiment has shifted bearish after the market failed to recover from last weekend’s $500 billion wipeout.
- One outlier from Thursday’s sell-off was , which rose from intraday lows of $0.312 to $0.322 as it begins to show strength and signs of recovery.
- There are multiple catalysts behind the recent sell-off; notably distribution from long-term holders of bitcoin, which has created an environment with heavy sell pressure coupled with a lack of demand.
- Altcoins are often negative recipients from downside in bitcoin and liquidity levels, especially following the weekend’s leverage blowout, remains low. This means that when a sell-off occurs, prices rapidly take out levels of support until sufficient liquidity is found to meet the demand of sellers.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market continues to stabilize, with Open Interest holding firm around $25 billion. The 3-month annualized basis has also remained steady, trading in the 5-6% range. However, a notable divergence in funding rates highlights a mixed market sentiment; Binance and OKX now have negative funding rates of -2% to -3%, while other platforms are either flat or slightly positive. This negative funding on major exchanges indicates that a large number of traders are holding short positions, suggesting a degree of bearish conviction despite the stable open interest and basis.
- The BTC options market shows a strong bullish signal. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume is now roughly balanced, indicating steady demand from both sides. However, the most significant metric is the 1-week 25 Delta Skew, which has spiked to 12.62%, suggesting that traders are willing to pay a substantial premium for call options and are aggressively positioning for a price increase.
- Coinglass data shows $415 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 70-30 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($115 million), BTC ($80 million) and Others ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $110,009 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price drop.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.25% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $111,252.17 (24hrs: -0.99%)
- ETH is up 1.12% at $4,040.89 (24hrs: -2.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.25% at 3,705.27 (24hrs: -2.6%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 4 bps at 2.88%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0034% (-3.7624% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.22% at 98.58
- Gold futures are up 0.99% at $4,243.00
- Silver futures are up 1.10% at $51.94
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.27% at 48,277.74
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,888.51
- FTSE is up 0.01% at 9,425.95
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.37% at 5,625.86
- DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 46,253.31
- S&P 500 closed up 0.4% at 6,671.06
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.66% at 22,670.08
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.93% at 30,637.12
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.13% at 2,858.51
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.3 bps at 4.022%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.28% at 6,733.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.42% at 25,029.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.29% at 46,629.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.37% (-0.29%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03643 (1.22%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,080 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.77
- Total Fees: 2.96 BTC / $331,756
- CME Futures Open Interest: 145,800 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.5 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.48%
Technical Analysis
- Following the liquidation cascade on October 10, BTC rebounded to the $116K level before facing rejection from the daily order block in that area. This level aligns with the highest monthly closing price and the 50-EMA on the daily chart, reinforcing its significance as resistance.
- BTC is currently trading around $110.8K, maintaining the ascending support trendline established in September. For the bullish structure to remain intact, BTC needs to hold the key support zone between $108K and $109.6K – an area that also aligns with the 200-EMA on the daily timeframe.
- A breakdown below this level could open the door for a retest of the 50W EMA near $100K.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $336.3 (-1.54%), +0.83% at $339.08
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $134.48 (+0.01%), +1.07% at $135.95
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $41.92 (+1.9%), +0.79% at $42.25
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $58.65 (-1.11%), +0.38% at $58.87
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $22.84 (+2.7%), +1.36% at $23.15
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $22.13 (-0.27%), +1.08% at $22.37
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.94 (+5.28%), +0.2% at $19.98
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $23.2 (+5.55%), 0.99% at $23.43
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $65.9 (+3.31%), +0.58% at $66.29
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.47 (-1.15%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $296.76 (-1.3%), +1.11% at $300.04
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $25.47 (-0.82%), -1.03% at $25.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.15 (-3.13%), +5.02% at $15.91
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.02 (-3.68%), -0.33% at $6
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.13 (-2.74%), -0.94% at $2.11
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$104.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.40 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.36 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $169.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.90 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.81 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- How Deep Could BTC Crash If Bulls Fail to Defend $107K–$110K Support Zone? (CoinDesk): Analysts warn a decisive break below the $107,000–$110,000 support band could trigger a sharp decline toward $98,330 or even $82,000, as momentum signals point to buyer exhaustion.
- Kraken Expands US Derivatives Business in $100 Million IG Deal (Bloomberg): Kraken’s $100 million purchase of IG Group’s Small Exchange gives it a U.S. futures trading license, paving the way to launch perpetual products domestically ahead of a planned IPO next year.
- Bitcoin Faces Heavy Selling Pressure Despite Seasonal Bullish Expectations (CoinDesk): Long-term holders have sold more than 300,000 BTC since June, with profit-taking accelerating since early October. Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC remain the primary distributors, while smaller investors continue to accumulate.
- Paxos Fat-Fingers $300T of PayPal Stablecoin, Outpacing USD’s $2.4T Supply (CoinDesk): A technical error briefly created $300 trillion in PYUSD before Paxos burned the excess, raising questions about how stablecoins can be minted without matching reserves.
- FT Investigation: How the Trump Companies Made $1Bn From Crypto (Financial Times): Trump’s political power and regulatory overhaul have reportedly fueled a sprawling crypto empire spanning memecoins, stablecoins, and DeFi platforms, attracting foreign capital and blurring the line between state and business.
- Top European Central Bank Board Members See Sticky Inflation but Clear Rate Path (CNBC): Revised forecasts showing stronger German growth contrast with stubborn services inflation across the eurozone, leaving policymakers cautious even as they debate when and how to adjust interest rates.
