The NFL’s Week 6 slate wraps up with a pair of “Monday Night Football” games. The Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 49.5) visit the Atlanta Falcons to get things started (7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN), and the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders (-4.5, 49.5) kick off an hour later (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC).
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the games.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook.
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BUF-ATL: Game picks
Prop bets | Betting trends
CHI-WSH: Game picks
Prop bets | Betting trends
The Bills are coming off a loss to the Patriots, their first of the season. They are still the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +475. The Falcons defeated the the Commanders in Week 4 and had a bye last week. At 2-2, they are +190 to earn a playoff berth. The Bills opened as 4.5-point favorites but the line has been bet down to 3.5.
Bills-Falcons game bets
Total points UNDER 49.5 (Even)
Maldonado: Atlanta’s offense can move the ball but struggles to finish drives, ranking near the bottom of the league in touchdown rate per possession. It’s volume without payoff. Buffalo’s defense, even with injuries, remains top 10 in opponent yards per play and red-zone stops. On the other side, Atlanta’s zone-heavy defense limits explosive passes and forces opponents to play patient football. We just saw Buffalo grind through that kind of game against New England. If that happens again, expect more James Cook touches and designed runs for Josh Allen with fewer deep shots. Both offenses can string drives together, but neither plays fast or finishes efficiently enough to sail the over.
Notable player props, bets
Tyler Allgeier to go OVER 7.5 rush attempts (-125)
Loza: Bijan Robinson is, undoubtedly, the star of the Falcons offense. Allgeier, however, has carved out a standalone role for himself, averaging nearly 11 carries and 39 rushing yards per contest. The spread suggests game flow won’t work in Allgeier’s favor, but I expect the Falcons to play keep-away early, attempting to take advantage of Buffalo’s generous run defense. Given that Allgeier has managed at least 10 carries in three of four games this season (including the team’s Week 1 loss versus Tampa Bay), Robinson’s backup should clear the above line Monday night.
Bijan Robinson to go OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
Bowen: Robinson is averaging 4.5 receptions per game and has already reached 100 yards receiving twice this season. The Falcons will see heavy zone coverage from the Bills, which creates opportunities for Robinson underneath. And we know he can create explosive plays when he gets the ball in space.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last three games but 4-1 ATS in their last five following a loss.
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The Falcons are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog.
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Unders are 17-9 in Bills road games since 2022.
0:46
Why Caleb Williams is back inside Field Yates’ top 10 for Week 6
Field Yates explains why Caleb Williams re-enters his top 10 at ahead of Week 6.
The Commanders rebounded from a Week 4 loss with a big win over the Chargers last week to improve to 3-2. The Bears, meanwhile, are riding a two-game winning streak that evened their record at 2-2. They also are coming off a bye. The Commanders are 4.5-point favorites Monday night.
Bears-Commanders game bets
Total points UNDER 50.5 (Even)
Maldonado: This game is a tale of two teams that move the ball but stall out more than they finish. Washington’s offense looks efficient on paper, but it’s built around the run game and short throws, not explosive plays. The Commanders lead the league in rushing success rate, and Chicago’s defense has quietly tightened up in its past two games. On the other side, Caleb Williams is still learning how to handle pressure, and this Washington front brings it on nearly 40% of dropbacks. If the Bears can’t protect Williams, it’s hard to see this turning into a shootout, especially with both teams ranked in the bottom half in pace.
Bears team total OVER 22.5 points (-115)
Walder: The closer I’ve looked at the Bears numbers, the more I like what I see from this offense. They entered Week 6 ranked fourth in pass-block win rate and first in open score. In other words, the supporting cast — and Ben Johnson’s scheme — has set up Caleb Williams for success (outside of a lackluster ground game). Williams has struggled with accuracy, with a negative-10% completion percentage over expectation and 23% off-target rate, both worst among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks entering this week. But those two accuracy numbers are both worse than what he posted as a rookie. If Williams can just get back to being a middling accuracy quarterback, I think this offense could start flying, especially against this aging Commanders defense.
Notable player props, bets
Deebo Samuel to go OVER 8.5 rushing yards (-120)
Loza: A move to the West Coast appears to have revitalized Samuel, who has looked vintage since arriving in D.C. With Terry McLaurin out of the lineup, the former 49er has worked as Washington’s No. 1 WR, clearing 70 receiving yards in back-to-back contests. We also know Deebo has running appeal out of the backfield. Furthermore, the Bears are easier to beat on the ground than through the air, especially given the likely return of defensive back Kyler Gordon. Chicago has allowed the 10th-most rushing yards on the season and the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing wide receivers. I expect Samuel to use his legs Monday night, rumbling his way to double-digit rushing yards.
DJ Moore to go OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bowen: Moore has at least four receptions in three straight and is averaging 43.3 receiving yards per game. With the pressure Dan Quinn’s defense can manufacture, look for the Bears to deploy Moore as a quick pass/screen target for Williams. Catch and run.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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Washington is 8-2 ATS as home favorite since 2024.
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The Commanders are 8-2 ATS as home favorites under Dan Quinn (4-0 ATS last four).
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The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog.
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This is Chicago’s 31st consecutive road game as an underdog, the longest active streak in the NFL.
