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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — “That is clobbered. Right-center field. That one’s back, Garcia near the wall and … he reaches out and makes the catch. And Tucker absolutely annihilated that.
“There’s a welcome-to-Wrigley Field moment.”
That was the call by Chicago Cubs play-by-play man Jon Sciambi on April 7 when Kyle Tucker flew out against the Texas Rangers after hitting a ball 104.6 mph with a launch angle of 29 degrees and an expected batting average of .880. Instead of clearing the fence, the ball dropped into the glove of right fielder Adolis Garcia — courtesy of the wind, which was blowing in at 17 mph. It was Tucker’s fourth game in his new home ballpark.
“That was an early one I can recall,” the low-key Tucker said this week. “I hit it pretty good off of [Nathan] Eovaldi. It didn’t go out.”
It would be the first of several balls Tucker hit well this season that died on the warning track — and he’s not alone. Once known for high-scoring, back-and-forth games, Wrigley Field has become one of the tougher parks for hitters due to a shift in the wind in recent seasons.
In 81 games played on the North Side this year, including three in the wild-card round last week (the Cubs opened the season with two home games in Japan), the wind blew in 51 times and 12 games featured a right-field-to-left-field crosswind. It only blew out in 19 games. In 2024, the wind blew in 39 times compared with out 21 and 21 games with a crosswind.
“The last two years, it’s blown in, in the summer,” veteran Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said. “When it’s gotten hot, it’s blown in. And that’s basically the opposite of what it was traditionally. Now, when it’s cool, it blows out.
“There doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason that we know of but it’s been different.”
Cubs head groundskeeper Dan Kiermaier also can’t pinpoint the reason for the shift, but the man who studies wind patterns for the team can confirm that it is a real trend and not just hitters noticing when the wind works against them.
“It’s kind of bewildering. All my years prior to these past two years, the wind would blow out in the summer. I don’t have a backstory or anything. I can’t really put a finger on why it is the way it is the last couple of years.”
Happ and his fellow hitters are hoping for a shift outward when the National League Division Series resumes Wednesday night at Wrigley as temperatures are expected in the low 60s, but he’s not counting on it. Warm or cool, the Friendly Confines has not been a friend to hitters.
“More than any park I’ve ever played in,” 40 year-old Justin Turner said. “You can’t try to do something different. Hopefully it’s hit hard under the wind and away from a defender.”
Wrigley Field ranked fourth worst for hitters this year in extra distance a ballpark provides, according to Statcast, based on elements that don’t include the temperature. Last year, it ranked 29th. In or out on Wednesday, the Cubs need some runs to stay alive in the postseason as they’re down 2-0 in their best-of-five series against the Milwaukee Brewers. They should have an edge dealing with the home elements considering all the time and energy the team has devoted to it.
“Embrace Wrigley,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly dubbed it. “Instead of shying away and saying the wind is going to kill us today, how do we flip that and use the wind to our advantage today.”
How it impacts hitters
After playing the first two games of the NLDS at Milwaukee’s climate-controlled American Family Field, the initial adjustments for dealing with conditions at Wrigley Field will begin far before the first pitch of Game 3 is thrown.
During their hitter’s meetings before every home game, Kelly shows a graphic of which way the wind is blowing that day. It comes courtesy of Kiermaier, the brother of former major leaguer Kevin Kiermaier. It’s as detailed as it can be, but Chicago isn’t exactly the most predictable of cities when it comes to its weather.
“It’ll switch,” Kelly said. “Our predictions aren’t always perfect but you’re trying to be as prepared for it as you can.”
For some hitters, thinking about the direction of the wind starts well before they get to the park.
“When I drive down Lake Shore Drive and see if the lake is calm or not,” Happ said with a smile.
Dansby Swanson added: “You can’t have it consume you, but it’s also reality. You would be foolish as a player to not take it into consideration when you go play.”
Kelly believes Swanson has been particularly impacted by wind taking away would-be extra-base hits, especially for a right-handed hitter. Just as it did for Tucker against Eovaldi, the ball often dies in right-center — and that was one of Swanson’s preferred places to drive baseballs before coming to Chicago.
“He was really good at it in Atlanta,” Kelly said. “There’s a jet stream that works well for that. He doesn’t have that here.”
“I can’t remember the last time I hit a double to right-center,” Swanson said. “It’s definitely caused its fair share of frustration.”
Of course the wind plays the same for the opponent as it does for Cubs hitters, so in one sense it evens out on a given day — but the difference for opposing hitters is that they’re at Wrigley Field for three games, not 81. Still, Swanson takes some solace in knowing that he is not alone in feeling the frustration of a well-hit ball that results in an out instead of extra bases.
“[Juan] Soto and [Giancarlo] Stanton hit some balls pretty hard last season that stayed in the park,” Swanson recalled. “You could see it in their faces.
“I laugh and I’m like ‘Not here, buddy.'”
So what’s the goal as a hitter when the wind is blowing in? Happ says the tendency is to try to pull the ball, using a player’s strength to that side of the field to hit through the wind. That’s a mistake.
“As a hitter, try to fight that and stay in the middle of the field,” he said. “Best thing you can do is stay with your approach and not worry about it. Easier said than done when you’re looking out there looking for hits.”
How it impacts pitchers
Though a weather report showing the wind blowing in can ruin the day for a hitter, it is always welcome news for the pitchers heading to the mound at Wrigley.
In the 51 games when it did blow in this season, the Cubs and their opponent combined to average just 7.4 runs per game. Those numbers are a stark difference from when the wind isn’t working to a pitcher’s advantage: Teams combined to average 12.4 runs per game when the wind was blowing out, and just under 10 runs when it was deemed a crosswind.
“It could be your best friend or worst nightmare,” St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore said. “I remember a ball that Patrick Wisdom hit (in 2024) that was 110 mph at 35 degrees (launch angle). Everyone dropped their head and thought it was gone. It was a routine pop fly to left field. The next time I was there, balls were flying out everywhere.”
For better or worse — depending on the day — the Cubs employ several fly ball pitchers, including Shota Imanaga. Seventeen of the 31 home runs he allowed this season came at home.
“My job is to have them hit fly balls that die on the warning track,” Imanaga said through the team interpreter.
Righty Andrew Kittredge, who was acquired at the trade deadline this year, learned quickly how unpredictable that job can be at Wrigley Field simply by being surrounded by his teammates in the bullpen.
“Someone in the bullpen usually comments on it in the first inning,” he said. “I try not to pay too much attention to it. I can’t let that dictate how I pitch a hitter.”
Catchers have an even more mixed feeling working at Wrigley Field since they would love to see the Wrigley flags blowing out when they are batting, but also know the added challenges those days bring for the pitchers they are working with from behind the plate.
“I look at it every inning,” Cubs catcher Carson Kelly said. “More defensively because if there is a fly ball somewhere where the wind is blowing against it, it might come back to you at some point.
“It’s all-hands-on-deck when a ball goes up in the air.”
What it means for free agency
Whenever the final out of the Cubs’ 2025 season comes, Chicago will immediately be in the offseason spotlight with Tucker likely to be one of this winter’s highest-paid free agents, whether that contract comes from the Cubs or another suitor.
The high-profile free agency comes at a time when the hitting environment at Wrigley Field seems to be a topic among agents more than ever.
After Cody Bellinger hit 26 home runs for the Cubs in 2023, he signed a three-year, $60 million deal with opt-outs, thinking even better offensive days were ahead. But that’s just about the time the conditions began to shift against hitters, and Bellinger hit just 18 home runs in 2024 before being traded to the Yankees over the winter.
Kelly thinks the wind shift in 2024 impacted Bellinger as much as anyone.
“I love him and he’s one of my favorite players I’ve ever coached, it was Belli,” Kelly said. “The way that his swing plays. He doesn’t hit balls 112 or 113 mph. He’s a plus contact, launch-angle guy, but with the wind blowing in from right, it cuts down that ball that is hit at 102 mph at 28 degrees. That’s a homer in a lot of places.”
In fact, Bellinger hit 18 home runs in 80 home games with the Yankees this season and an additional 11 on the road.
Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, who also is the agent for Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman. When the Cubs were recruiting Bregman to play for them during free agency, they had one thing working against them compared to the team he eventually chose: Wrigley Field vs. Fenway Park.
Bregman wanted more guaranteed dollars to sign with the Cubs — at least five years’ worth — but was willing to take a shorter deal in Boston, with opt-outs, because it has a better hitting environment, according to sources familiar with the situation. Bregman compiled an 0.821 OPS this season, his highest since 2019, and seems likely to opt out of his three-year, $120 million deal.
“I don’t think it’s shying hitters away, but guys are more aware of it now,” Kelly said. “Agents are aware of it.”
Perhaps no player in Chicago is more aware of how the Wrigley wind can affect a player and change over time than Happ, a switch-hitter who has been with the team since 2017. After signing a three-year contract to stay with the Cubs in 2023, Happ will hit free agency again following next season. Happ was asked how the conditions at Wrigley might impact a player who is headed to the open market, like Tucker will be in November.
“Expected (stats) help tell a different story going into free agency, but it doesn’t factor in that you know the wind is blowing in,” Happ said. “Mentally, it’s challenging.”
