Ledn CIO John Glover, who correctly predicted recent bitcoin [BTC] price gains, has issued a stark warning that a failure to break above the $125,000 resistance could prove costly, potentially signaling the start of a bear market.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, tapped record highs above $125,000 over the weekend. The rally followed renewed demand for U.S.-listed spot ETFs amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and was likely boosted by pro-stimulus comments from Japan’s newly elected prime minister.
However, momentum has stalled over the past 24 hours, with prices retreating to $124,000.
According to Glover, BTC’s fate is now anchored to one crucial decision point: $125,000. A decisive push above this level could bring further gains, while a rejection could lead to a more challenging bear market.
“If we do so [move above $125K], then $145k is expected sometime around the end of the year/early next year. If we reject a couple of attempts at $125k, then there is merit to the argument that we will begin a bear market for BTC,” Glover said in an email, detailing his Elliott wave analysis.
Glover belongs to the bullish camp, expecting a decisive move above $125,000 followed by a year-end rally to around $145,000. However, he anticipates that a bear market will follow a move to $145,000.
Bullish case looks strong
Since July, bitcoin has surpassed $120,000 three times, including the recent move over the weekend.
While the previous two surges were quickly reversed in a sharp, inverted V-shaped pattern, the latest rally appears more convincing. Prices continue to hold above $120,000, suggesting that non-institutional demand remains strong, as noted by Singapore-based QCP Capital in their daily market update.
This points to a higher probability of sustained upward momentum, pushing prices well beyond the $125,000 level.
