Ontario slipped from being in a position to achieve its current emissions target to likely missing it mainly because of increased emissions from electricity generation, government documents reveal.
Back in October 2024, the Ford government was on course to exceed its 2030 target of getting greenhouse gas emissions at or below 28 per cent of their 2005 levels, an internal analysis shows.
An update in January 2025, however, significantly worsened the projections and put the province in a position where it can likely no longer hit its goal.
Although the two models were put together just three months apart, the difference was significant. An internal document obtained by Global News using freedom of information laws shows the change was driven by electricity policies in Ontario.
“This forecast is about 8 Mt higher than the October 2024 forecast, mainly due to higher electricity sector emissions that reflect latest ENERGY/IESO energy planning and assumptions,” the document said.
The analysis released to Global News does not specifically say what changes in electrical power generation and policy forced the government to revise its projections.
Get daily National news
Get the day’s top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day.
Some of the emissions increases in Ontario’s electricity supply likely come from the growing role given to gas plants in recent years.
Earlier this year, the rate of electricity produced by natural gas rose to its highest level since 2012 as the government relied on it to make up for temporarily lost nuclear generation this decade.
The internal emissions report cited “changing electricity generation,” like nuclear power refurbishment and “policy uncertainty” as “risks” to its projection and overall target.
While the January projection was revised down, the reality could be even worse. On Wednesday, Ontario’s auditor general said the figures were overly optimistic and outdated.
A new report from the watchdog said the province could miss its original target by “an even wider margin” than the January estimate. Particularly, the auditor general said the province had likely overestimated its greenhouse gas emissions reductions in several sectors, including transportation and waste.
Environment Minister Todd McCarthy said he believed the need to protect the economy in the face of tariffs from the United States had to be balanced against emissions targets.
“We cannot put families’ financial, household budgets at risk by going off in a direction that’s not achievable,” he said.
McCarthy would not accept targets beyond 2030, or promise to achieve those already set, but said the government was trying.
“We are continuing to meet our commitment to at least try to meet our commitment for the 2030 target,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “But targets are not outcomes. We believe in achievable outcomes, not unrealistic objectives.”
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
