With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff projection, landing in the dreaded No. 12 spot, where it would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions.
The Nittany Lions are now officially on the bubble — and under pressure to win at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
This week, we added a fourth category: On the cusp. These are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers dropped out of the top 12 projection following their loss to Ole Miss because they didn’t look like a playoff team: 2-of-11 on third downs, 59 rushing yards, seven penalties and one turnover. The LSU defense allowed 13 explosive plays, its most in a single game since the 2024 season opener against USC. Offensively, LSU managed just three explosive plays — its fewest in a game since 2018. Still, it was a close loss on the road, and LSU has plenty of chances to get back into the race. Unless it continues to play like that. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU’s chances of reaching the SEC title game dropped to 2.9%, the 10th-best chance in the league. If the Tigers are not in the conference championship game, they could still earn an at-large bid, but they have the No. 12 toughest remaining schedule. That includes trips to ranked opponents Vandy, Alabama and Oklahoma.
The enigma: Vanderbilt. The perception of Vanderbilt is slowly changing — from an academic school with a football team, to an academic school with a spoiler team, to … hey, can these guys beat Bama again?! The Commodores are 5-0 for the second time in 80 years. Vandy beat the Tide 40-35 last year in Nashville. This year, the Commodores have scored at least 55 points in each of their past two games, and they’ve scored at least 30 in all five wins, their longest single-season streak since joining the SEC in 1948. A lot of Vandy’s success stems from the grit and personality of its quarterback, Diego Pavia, who accounted for six touchdowns against Utah State last week. This is where Vandy’s true test begins, though, as the Commodores have the No. 2 toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll face four straight ranked opponents, starting with Bama. ESPN’s FPI gives Vandy less than a 50% chance to beat Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — all three road games. If the Commodores can defy the odds in just one of those — and finish 10-2 — they could have a chance at an at-large bid.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Penn State. At No. 12 in this week’s weekly projection, Penn State would be bumped out of the CFP field during the seeding process to include Memphis, the projected champion from the American, and the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Penn State dropped for several reasons: It doesn’t have a win against a Power 4 opponent, it has one win against an FCS team (Villanova), and its offense hasn’t looked elite — even against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions can still change the narrative by beating Ohio State on Nov. 1 and Indiana on Nov. 8. They can also lose both of those games and miss the CFP entirely. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State less than a 50% chance to beat each of those teams. Don’t assume a 10-2 Penn State is a lock if its signature win is against Indiana — albeit a very good, ranked IU. There could be multiple other 10-2 contenders with better nonconference wins. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Penn State now has just a 22.5% chance of reaching the CFP — No. 19 in the country.
The enigma: Michigan. It’s still too early to tell how good the Wolverines are, and a bye week didn’t answer any questions. A gritty road win at Nebraska on Sept. 20, though, is early evidence things are trending in the right direction following the Sept. 6 loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, the defense — for the most part — has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. If the Wolverines can split with those two opponents and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee will give them serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams will be out there — and how will their résumés stack up. Right now, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Michigan (35.2%) a better chance of reaching the CFP than Penn State (22.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Jackets fans are still sweating the overtime escape at Wake Forest, and Demon Deacons fans are still mad about the no-call of offside at the end of the game that would’ve given Wake a critical first down. With the win, Georgia Tech now has the fourth-best chance in the league to reach the ACC title game (22%) behind Miami, Virginia and Duke. If the Jackets don’t make the ACC title game, it’s going to be difficult to earn an at-large bid because of the overall schedule strength — unless they find a way to beat rival Georgia. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Duke a 60.5% chance to beat the Jackets at home on Oct. 18, and gives Georgia an 84.7% chance to win. If that comes to fruition, a 10-2 Georgia Tech is likely out. But what if Georgia Tech finishes as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with its lone losses to Georgia and the ACC champ? That could be an interesting debate, but Georgia Tech still might not have enough big wins to impress the committee.
The enigma: Virginia. The Cavaliers had the spotlight to themselves on Friday night in a double-overtime win against Florida State — a stunning victory that illustrated the program’s investments in transfers and facilities and catapulted the Hoos into ACC contention. Was it a one-and-done upset? Or the start of something bigger under coach Tony Elliott? Virginia now has the second-best chance in the league to reach the conference title game (37.5%) behind Miami. The question is if the Cavaliers can sustain that success and build on it. ESPN’s FPI says no, giving them less than a 50% chance to win at Louisville on Saturday and at Duke on Nov. 15. If Virginia can win those games, though, and reach the ACC championship, that win against FSU could help the Hoos earn an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC. Florida State, though, has to remain relevant in the CFP race for that win to continue to resonate with the committee.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The undefeated Red Raiders were No. 13 in this week’s projection but would still be in the playoff as the projected Big 12 champion. Texas Tech’s best win was Sept. 20 at Utah, but it still has multiple chances to enhance its résumé and play its way into the top 12. If the selection committee ranks Utah, Arizona State and BYU — and the Red Raiders go undefeated during the regular season — it’s highly likely they would be the second Big 12 team if they didn’t win the conference title game. Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games. Nobody in the Big 12 has a better chance to reach the league championship (51.5%) or win it (31.6%).
The enigma: BYU. The undefeated Cougars have won back-to-back road games against East Carolina and Colorado, but is this another 2024 tease? Last year, BYU was undefeated until mid-November, when back-to-back losses knocked it out of the Big 12 and CFP races. The Cougars haven’t earned a signature win yet, and might not until the Oct. 25 trip to Iowa State. That’s when the committee will start to learn how seriously to take BYU, as the following week is a second straight critical road trip — to Texas Tech. The Cougars have the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (42.7%) and win it (26.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll have the Friday night spotlight this week against a struggling West Virginia team.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Colorado, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish are making the slow climb back and can get over .500 for the first time this season with a home win against Boise State on Saturday. It helps Notre Dame that Miami and Texas A&M have continued to win, but it doesn’t help that Arkansas fired its coach after the 56-13 loss to the Irish. It also doesn’t help that USC lost to Illinois, as Notre Dame desperately needs a win against a ranked opponent. As long as the Irish keep winning and doing it with style — as they have in each of their past two games — they’ll be in contention at 10-2.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The undefeated Tigers would lock up the No. 12 seed this week as the fifth-highest projected conference champion. They currently have the best chance in the Group of 5 (34.5%) to reach the playoff, and the best chance to win the American (41.1%). They’ve won three of their five games on the road, which is more than a lot of other contenders, and they beat a beleaguered Arkansas team 32-31. They’re not alone, though. The American conference is leading the race with multiple candidates, as Navy and North Texas are both undefeated and Tulane is hanging around with its lone loss to Ole Miss.
The enigma: Navy. The undefeated Midshipmen are again on a roll, but Rice is the only opponent over .500 that they’ve beaten, and one win was against VMI, an FCS opponent from the Southern Conference. Can Navy sustain its success against more formidable opponents? Last year, Navy was 6-0 before it came crashing back to reality with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Rice. According to ESPN Analytics, Navy has just a 12% chance of reaching the conference title game.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
