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Pamela Maldonado
The first five weeks of the college football season shook the betting board. National title odds are starting to reveal who’s built for a post-season run and who’s still a step behind, while the Heisman race has turned into a weekly stock market where one performance can send a player soaring or sinking overnight.
Alabama is suddenly back in the playoff conversation, Ole Miss is flirting with darkhorse status and the Heisman picture looks nothing like it did in August.
Before you make your next futures wager, here’s how the biggest line moves of Week 6 are shaping the landscape and what’s actually worth buying into.
Biggest moves and notable lines for the national championship winner
Ohio State (+500)
and Oregon (+600) are first and second in the national title odds and I agree. The Buckeyes are not the flashiest team in terms of explosive plays, but they are ruthlessly efficient; No. 1 in passing success rate, paired with a defense that ranks top 10 in EPA. This makes them matchup-proof, not needing shootouts to win. Ohio State can control games with consistency on both offense and defense, which is exactly the profile that translates in a playoff setting.
Oregon is exceeding expectations for me. I thought this would be a rebuild year but instead, it’s a coming out party. Their ceiling is as high as anyone’s, top 5 in EPA/play and EPA per drive, and when they’re rolling they’re nearly impossible to stop. The issue is volatility. That run defense is shaky, and they can give up sustained drives but when it comes to title odds, a team with Oregon’s offensive ceiling, balance and explosive potential belongs in that top tier.
Basically, Ohio State is the most complete team, while Oregon has the most dangerous ceiling, and together they deserve to be the favorites.
Alabama +800
Last week +1400
The line move is justified, but not because Alabama suddenly fixed the issues that existed in August. It’s more about market dynamics and playoff positioning than it is about on-field dominance.
Back in the preseason, my read was that this roster had a defined ceiling because the offense should pop but the defense wasn’t built like vintage Alabama units and was vulnerable against the run. That weakness still exists. Georgia ran for 227 yards and nearly seven yards per carry, which only reinforces that concern after getting bum-rushed by Florida State for 230 yards in Week 1.
What changed is the path. Beating Georgia removes their perceived toughest regular-season obstacle and gives Alabama full control of its playoff destiny. They also showed they can compensate for flaws with execution. Ty Simpson threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, converted 13 of 19 third downs, and dominated time-of-possession by 10 minutes. That’s efficiency.
I’m still bearish because the road ahead is loaded. Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee and South Carolina are a combined 17-3, followed by defenses from LSU and Oklahoma that will test them again. This wasn’t a team transformation. It was more about the matchup and Georgia’s lack of pass rush with flawed secondary than a sign that Alabama suddenly became elite.
Ole Miss +2000
Last week +5000
The move is eye-catching, and there’s some logic behind it with a mix of path, perception and a ceiling that is still being defined. At 5-0 with LSU already behind them, the Rebels now have a potential path to the playoff — but it is far from guaranteed.
They still have back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, followed by South Carolina and a season-ending trip to Mississippi State, who just pushed Tennessee to the wire. LSU’s flaws were already clear, so the real tests are still ahead.
Oddsmakers respect the firepower of this offense, which is averaging 42 points and more than 530 yards per game while producing over 10 yards per pass attempt. Even with a negative turnover margin and limited time of possession, they are scoring at a playoff-caliber clip.
The problem is on defense, where Ole Miss is generating little pass rush and struggles in limiting big plays. They still feel like a dark horse, not a true contender.
The biggest line moves for the Heisman Trophy
The Heisman odds are all over the place with a new favorite, even a new top 3 each week. Entering Monday of Week 6, there were six players that saw major odds movement.
CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame +2500
Last week +10000
The move is mostly justified, but with a caveat. The +2500 price reflects both what Carr has already shown and what he can still become this season. He’s produced at a high-caliber level so far, averaging over 10.5 yards per attempt with 10 total touchdowns and showing poise even in losses to Miami and Texas A&M. But Notre Dame starting 0-2 puts a ceiling on how far he can climb without a major narrative push.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon +750
Last week +1200
New week, new favorite. Moore’s odds likely still have room to shorten if he keeps this pace, completing 74.6% of his passes for 1,210 yards with 14 touchdowns and just one interception, showing elite efficiency and poise to push Oregon to a 5-0 start. More importantly, he delivered a signature Heisman moment with a three-touchdown performance in a double-overtime win at Penn State. With top-tier production, mistake-free football and a playoff-caliber team around him, Moore has firmly entered the heart of the Heisman conversation.
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame +2200
Last week +7500
I don’t get this move. It feels … aggressive. Love has been productive and efficient, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with five touchdowns, but the overall profile isn’t Heisman-worthy. He ranks just 52nd nationally in rushing yards, 36th in attempts and 23rd in rushing touchdowns, which suggests strong impact, but not elite volume. His breakout performance of 157 yards and two scores against Purdue likely fueled the odds shift, but without heavier usage or more signature moments in high-stakes games his candidacy looks more like a missed dart throw.
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State +1000
Last week +1600
This move is also premature. I would say most were high on Smith preseason and, while Smith has been solid and efficient (28 catches, 396 yards, 4 touchdowns), those numbers don’t yet scream Heisman-level production. He’s 18th in receiving yards, while his 14.1 yards per catch ranks just 24th in the conference. The uptick likely reflects Ohio State’s status as a title favorite and Smith’s potential to explode in bigger games, but +1000 is a bit too rich right now.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State +2200
Last week +6000
As overinflated as I’ve ever seen. Leavitt has been solid but far from Heisman-level: 52nd in passing yards, 97th in yards per attempt and 37th in passing touchdowns, while also being tied for 14th in sacks taken. His dual-threat ability gives his profile some versatility, but the overall production isn’t close to matching the top contenders. The jump likely reflects Arizona State’s 4-1 start, but statistically, it’s a hard no.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama +1000
Last week +2500
Here’s a line move that makes sense. We’re talking improved production and Alabama’s resurgence into playoff contention. He’s quietly putting together one of the most efficient resumes, tied for the sixth-most touchdown passes (11), fourth in completion percentage in the SEC (69.3%), and second in passer rating in the conference (173.1). Even without eye-popping volume (36th in yards), his ability to deliver in a marquee win over Georgia vaulted him into the Heisman conversation. If Alabama stays in the hunt, his odds could shorten even more. But, as mentioned, that Bama surge is about to be bested.
The lesson we can pull from viewing Heisman odds week-to-week is that maybe we should all stop clicking buttons. Wins are a team stat, not a player stat. The Heisman conversation tends to blur that line, especially with quarterbacks, because QBs usually drive winning. However, wins alone don’t make a player more deserving.
What matters for a Heisman resume is how a player impacts those wins: efficiency, production, signature performances and delivering in high-leverage moments.
Wins provide context, not credit. A Heisman case should be built on individual performance, not simply the record next to the team’s name.
Betting consideration: Penn State to miss the playoff (+150)
This is a (not so) crazy thought. At +150, this might be one of the most exploitable prices on the board. The implied probability is about 39%, but the real odds of Penn State missing the playoff feel much higher based on everything we’ve seen so far.
I was high on PSU in August but my preseason logic wasn’t off. It was built around a version of this team that never materialized. Drew Allar hasn’t taken the next step, the passing game is average at best, and the offense is just 80th in EPA per play. Even the run game, which was supposed to be their safety net, hasn’t been good enough to win future big games.
Then there’s James Franklin’s record in top-10 matchups, which now sits at 4-21. With Ohio State and a potentially top-10 ranked Indiana still on the schedule, the ceiling is clear.
At best, they finish 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Ohio State. At worst, they drop a third game (maybe to Indiana) and fall completely out of the conversation. Indiana’s ability to close a grind-it-out game against Iowa shows they’re built to handle Penn State too, and if that’s the case, then this essentially becomes a toss-up matchup.
Fading Penn State isn’t recency bias, it’s recognizing that the ceiling we expected in August has passed, and the current version of this team is far more vulnerable than the market implies. I had to check myself on why it’s still plus-money, and what I came up with is that books are pricing the brand and preseason hype more than the version of Penn State we’re actually watching.
This is trusting what history and the metrics already tell us.
